Post-pandemic cities

Coronavirus will change the shape of our cities, but the tide of urbanisation is unstoppable.

Shops

Past pandemics and diseases have played a key role in influencing the cities of today. The minimalist white walls and floor-to-ceiling windows beloved in modern buildings were originally inspired by the tuberculosis sanatoria of the early 20th century. The iconic boulevards of Paris and New York’s sprawling Central Park, meanwhile, were in part designed to help control the spread of cholera and other illnesses in the 19th century.

Much like past pandemics, Covid-19 will have similarly disruptive effects on the urban landscape.

It will transform how we build cities, as well as how we work and live in them. The virus also provides governments with an opportunity to fix the problems that have long plagued the urban environment.

Take retailing. After the pandemic, there will be fewer traditional shops. Bricks and mortar retail was already struggling before Covid-19 struck, with around one in 10 shops standing empty. After lockdowns, footfall in UK shops dropped 85 per cent year-on-year in April, while online sales spiked by 58 per cent to reach a record high of 70 per cent of all non-food sales. While such dramatic shifts are likely to be temporary, the broad trend has greatly been accelerated by the pandemic. The retailers that survive the digital shakeout will be the ones that are in popular locations, offer experiences and leisure activities. Some will become as much storage sites for online orders as actual shops.

City offices risk being another casualty of Covid-19. With millions of people across the world having experienced home working, there are fears that office life might be consigned to history. However, the situation is more complex. Undoubtedly, working practices will become more flexible, but offices are bound to have a future, even if many of us will end up working from home for several days a week. That's because humans are essentially social animals: we need shared space because it nurtures the sort of collaboration that makes us more innovative and creative. This is particularly true today, when many manual and routine jobs have been automated, changing the nature of what we do in offices – some 80 per cent of work today is defined as “collaborative”.

Of course, some businesses will fold and others – particularly small ones – may decide they can do without having an office. Older buildings in out-of-town locations are likely to struggle to attract tenants, and many may be converted into apartments. But, to balance that, there are businesses that are considering expanding office space to enable social distancing. The average space per employee has halved over the past two decades, and we may now see that trend reverse as spacious modern offices become a talent recruitment tool. According estimates from Knight Frank, an international property management company, socially distanced offices would require 135 square feet (sqft) per desk-based worker, compared to current averages of 126 sqft in the City of London and 104 sqft in the Docklands business district. There will be other changes too: doors that open without being touched, app-operated canteens, better lift systems, improved air circulation and innovative approaches to hot desking without compromising hygiene.

Parts of the city landscape that are dependent on travel will take a long time to recover. Hotels will likely embrace technology to reduce both costs and contact. Business locations may suffer more than those devoted to leisure, and there could be an increased focus on meeting the preferences of domestic tourists. Student accommodation may be in the doldrums for years as international students stay away and universities embrace online learning.

Housing will not be spared upheaval, either. As people become used to working from home, they will require a more professional work area. That implies a different design, including more space and light. In future apartment listings the number of workstations may become as important as the number of bedrooms. Co-living will probably remain popular, for financial reasons if nothing else, but with a greater focus on space and technology.

Suburban living will experience further growth. Families with young children, for example, may be even more attracted to the idea of relocating to city outskirts and commuter towns, especially if more flexible working catches on and they no longer have to face the commute every day. At the same time, the steady adoption of greener commuting – such as walking and cycling – will reduce the importance of public transport links. Electric bikes in particular can make a wide range of near-central locations more accessible and attractive.

Air quality – both inside and outside – will become a higher priority, both for residents and regulators. This is a big issue, as urban areas are responsible for 70 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. In large cities, like London, people will check air quality on their street when looking to buy homes or even choosing potential office locations. Green spaces will be especially popular, and cities will have an opportunity to promote biodiversity.

There will be new additions to our cities too - if we emerge from this pandemic with a more health conscious attitude, we will need more medical centres, sports facilities and other wellness establishments in the expectation that that. We’ll also need more small, last mile logistics facilities to accommodate the growth in online shopping. So those predicting that Covid-19 will put urbanisation into reverse are mistaken. As history has shown, cities always find a way to adapt. They will remain a testament to human ingenuity and resilience.

About

Mega

Mega seeks to energise and enrich the debate over how to create a better-functioning economy and society.

Megatrends are the powerful socio-economic, environmental and technological forces that shape our planet. The digitisation of the economy, the rapid expansion of cities and the depletion of the Earth’s natural resources are just some of the structural trends transforming the way countries are governed, companies are run and people live their lives.

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